Norbert Nagel · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons · Source · License
On October 30, 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) officially released the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2026. In this survey, private sector economic experts raised their forecasts for both headline and core inflation in the Eurozone for 2026 and 2027, citing the impact of rising energy prices. However, they assessed that long-term inflation expectations for 2031 remain stable, aligning with the ECB’s 2.0% target.
Overview of the Q4 2026 SPF and Participants
The fourth quarter 2026 survey was conducted from October 2 to October 7, 2026, with 52 economic experts from financial and non-financial institutions across Europe participating. The quarterly SPF conducted by the ECB serves as fundamental data for comprehensively assessing macroeconomic indicator forecasts—including Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation, core inflation, real GDP growth, unemployment, and wage growth—as well as the quantitative uncertainties associated with them.
Headline and Core Inflation Outlook and Risk Balance
According to the survey results, the HICP headline inflation forecast stands at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028. This represents an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points for 2026 and 0.4 percentage points for 2027 compared to the previous third-quarter survey, while the 2028 forecast remains unchanged at 2.0%. Long-term inflation expectations for 2031 remained stable at 2.0% for both headline and core prices.
Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is projected at 2.4% for 2026, 2.5% for 2027, and 2.2% for 2028. While the 2026 projection is unchanged from the previous survey, the 2027 and 2028 figures were revised upward by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. In response to a special question regarding the impact of conflict in the Middle East, respondents noted that while the primary effect of energy price shocks is expected to be concentrated in 2027, secondary effects are likely to be limited. Upside risks to inflation were seen as predominant from 2026 to 2028, but are expected to become more balanced thereafter.
Real GDP Growth Outlook and Risk Assessment
The Eurozone’s real GDP growth forecast was partially revised upward to reflect recent short-term economic data. Experts project growth of 1.0% for 2026, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous survey. The 2027 growth forecast was adjusted upward by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%, while the 2028 growth forecast remained unchanged at 1.3%. The long-term GDP growth forecast for 2031 was 1.3%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous survey. Meanwhile, the balance of risks to real GDP growth remained tilted toward the downside across all survey horizons.
Labor Market: Unemployment and Wage Growth Projections
For labor market indicators, the unemployment rate is projected at 6.4% for 2026, a slight upward adjustment of 0.1 percentage points from the previous survey. Following this, the unemployment rate is expected to gradually decline to 6.3% in 2027 and 6.2% in 2028, eventually reaching 6.1% in the long term.
Wage growth is projected to be 3.3% for 2026 (+0.1 percentage point from the previous survey), 3.1% for 2027 (+0.1 percentage point), and 2.8% for 2028 (unchanged). The long-term wage growth expectation for 2031 was revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%.
Limitations of the Survey and Future Eurosystem Schedule
The European Central Bank stated that the results of this survey represent the individual views of the participating experts and do not represent the positions of the ECB’s policy-making bodies or official staff. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections are scheduled to be released on December 18, 2026.
Official Sources
- European Central Bank, Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026, published October 30, 2026.